Rework your talking points, Governor. You hazard losing the message war over Proposition xxx.

That's ane implication of the latest poll on Jerry Brown's tax initiative for the November ballot. Most Californians continue to back it, but not by a comfortable bulk. Pollsters are predicting a tight race to the finish.

In the PACE/USC Rossier poll, 31 percent (blue) said they'd strongly support Proposition 30 and 24 percent somewhat support it (orange), while 23 percent strongly oppose (brown) and 12 percent somewhat oppose (green), with the rest undecided.

In the Pace/USC Rossier poll, 31 percent (blue) said they'd strongly support Proposition xxx and 24 percent somewhat support information technology (orange), while 23 percent strongly oppose (brown) and 12 pct somewhat oppose (green), with the residuum undecided.

According to the online poll by Policy Analysis for California Education (Footstep) and the USC Rossier School of Education of 1,041 likely voters, 54.5 percent say they favor and 35.9 percent say they oppose Prop 30, with 9.6 pct undecided – results that are in line with other recent surveys.

Merely when asked  to choose which resonates with them more – the basic pitch that Dark-brown and his allies are making or the arguments of the Prop thirty opponents –  by 49 to 35 percentage, poll respondents agreed with the anti-taxers, with xvi percent unsure.

Dark-brown faces a dilemma. The initiative would raise an average of $half-dozen billion per year past raising the sales revenue enhancement a quarter cent for four years and increasing the income tax for seven years on those earning more than $250,000 per year. Despite years of cuts in land and education spending due to declining state acquirement, many voters believe there is waste in Sacramento. Opponents led past the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association are hitting hard on that theme, highlighting billions of dollars for the bullet railroad train, a $53 one thousand thousand business relationship subconscious in the State Parks and Recreation upkeep, and raises for senior legislative staff. "State spending is out of control, and the Sacramento politicians want to ship you the bill," Jon Coupal, president of the Association, intones in a 30-second radio advertising.

In the TV ad, Brown calls for passing Proposition 30 to protect budgets for schools and public safety.

In the Television set ad, Brown calls for passing Suggestion 30 to protect budgets for schools and public prophylactic.

In a 90-2d Television advertising that was played to the poll respondents, Brown doesn't talk about what he'd do with the extra revenue. He and the everyday Californians featured in the ads stress  broadly protecting schools and public condom and ask voters to "have a stand" for California.

But afterward hearing the TV ad and the  Howard Jarvis radio ad, support for Prop thirty among respondents to the Footstep/USC Rossier poll declines 2.1 pct points to 52.three percent, dangerously close to the minimum 50 percent threshold; the opposition falls by the same amount, and the undecideds jump more than four percentage points, to 13.9 percent.

Brown has written Prop 30 ­so that Grand-12 schools and higher education would take the full $half dozen billion hit if the initiative fails, essentially property education for bribe. Having chosen that strategy, the campaign has however to make vividly clear the impact on students and their futures of losing the equivalent of three weeks of the school year in Grand-12, besides equally the impact of higher tuition and decimated programs in community colleges and the CSU and UC systems.

Brown hasn't fabricated a strong argument for more money for K-12 schools. (Attorney Molly Munger has, only but forty percent of respondents in the Pace/USC Rossier poll back her initiative, Prop 38, which would generate $10 billion per twelvemonth past raising the income tax on all just the lowest earners.) And yet Brown could make the example that likely voters' tiptop preferences for using new educational activity money, if either of the propositions passes, are substantially his. Respondents said they would:

  • Restore programs and services that have been cut (47 percent);
  • Prevent additional cuts to local schools (45 percent);
  • Reduce class sizes (37 percent);
  • Reduce the state's debt and residual the budget (34 percent).

If Prop 30 passes, Chocolate-brown plans to reduce the debt that the state owes its schools, through late payments, and then that schools will then accept more than acquirement on time in future years.

In a previous USC poll in May and again in this poll, voters, past a two-to-one margin, also indicated back up for some other of Brown'due south education priorities: spending more than coin for economically disadvantaged children. Brown tried to become his weighted student funding through this year and will be dorsum again next year. That's another credible argument for more money for schools ­ – one that Brown has nevertheless to brand.

What may salve Prop 30 is not the bulletin merely money.

"The real fundamental here is funding," said poll director Dan Schnur, who also directs USC's Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics. "Few campaigns win where they don't outspend the opponents." With the California Teachers Association, the California Federation of Teachers, and California Nurses Association each kicking in more than $one million, the Yes on 30  campaign and related efforts take raised more than $xx million already, while opponents are struggling to accomplish $1 one thousand thousand. (See running totals of the contributions.)

Withal powerful their message, opponents will struggle to be heard.

Beside the November election, respondents were asked questions nearly technology, career and technical education and the state of schools in general.

Amongst the findings:

Career education: Voters accept a somewhat outdated view of career technical education, such Partnership Academies that gear up students for college or the workforce; 48 percentage said that CTE is for students who aren't good at academic subjects, while 45 percent disagreed. 90 percent said students should exist taught practical skills so that they can get jobs subsequently graduating from high school.

Applied science: 57 percent endorsed the thought that students spend role of every solar day working independently online but only 38 percent agreed with the idea that students should be able to have classes online instead of going to school. Asked if engineering volition reduce the cost of education in California schools, 48 percent agreed, and 34 percent disagreed.

To become more than reports like this one, click here to sign up for EdSource's no-cost daily email on latest developments in education.